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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 49

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(:08) 9-K.Redfern punts 37 yards to LA 12, Center-47-J.Harris. 88-M.Thomas to LA 15 for 3 yards (83-R.Gage).

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.52 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
KICK -1.15 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model