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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 46

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(4:24) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass short right to 33-N.Scott pushed ob at ATL 23 for 23 yards (28-J.Miller).

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.97 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 46, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -1.17 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 13, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model