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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 72

Los Angeles Rams 27 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(2:27) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to ATL 29, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-33-N.Scott.

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.57 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 72, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 30, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model