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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 22

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(5:11) 4-G.Zuerlein 40 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.40 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 22, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 32, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP