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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 32

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 3-M.Bryant 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-8-M.Schaub.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.04 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 32, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 42, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model