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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 34

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(11:28) 3-M.Bryant 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-8-M.Schaub.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.18 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 34, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 44, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP