Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 11 at the 69

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Los Angeles Rams 27

(4:38) 9-K.Redfern punts 39 yards to LA 30, Center-47-J.Harris. 19-J.Natson to LA 28 for -2 yards (87-J.Graham, 53-J.Grace).

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.42 EP
65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 69, worth -3.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model