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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 37

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(1:47) 4-G.Zuerlein 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.69 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 37, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.19 EP
What Happened
  • 60% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 46, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP