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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 7

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 4-G.Zuerlein 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.69 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 7, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model