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Detroit Lions

HC Matt Patricia
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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
Monday 2019-10-14 · 20:15 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

DET
46.7%
GB
53.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET on 7 more days rest than GB
  • GB defense: +0.042 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • DET defense: -0.077 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Aaron Rodgers (GB): +0.103 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

DET 22
–
GB 23
Projected margin: GB by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

DET

Mike Daniels DT Out Foot
Amani Oruwariye CB Out Knee
T.J. Hockenson TE Questionable Concussion
Danny Amendola WR Questionable Chest
Quandre Diggs S Questionable Hamstring
Da'Shawn Hand DE Questionable Elbow
A'Shawn Robinson DT Questionable Knee
Darius Slay CB Questionable Hamstring

GB

Davante Adams WR Out Toe
Darnell Savage S Out Ankle
Robert Tonyan TE Out Hip
Tony Brown CB Doubtful Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 22
–
GB 23

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:44 FG DET (12:44) 5-M.Prater 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 3 – GB 0
  • Q1 06:41 TD DET (6:41) 33-K.Johnson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 9 – GB 0
  • Q2 13:32 FG DET (13:32) 5-M.Prater 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 13 – GB 0
  • Q2 07:37 TD GB (7:37) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 30-J.Williams for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 13 – GB 6
  • Q2 00:11 FG GB (:11) 2-M.Crosby 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. DET 13 – GB 10
  • Q3 12:39 FG GB (12:39) 2-M.Crosby 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. DET 13 – GB 13
  • Q3 09:04 FG DET (9:04) 5-M.Prater 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 16 – GB 13
  • Q3 03:31 FG DET (3:31) 5-M.Prater 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 19 – GB 13
  • Q4 12:22 FG DET (12:22) 5-M.Prater 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 22 – GB 13
  • Q4 09:10 TD GB (9:10) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 13-A.Lazard for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 22 – GB 19
  • Q4 00:02 FG GB (:02) 2-M.Crosby 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. DET 22 – GB 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 7 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (12:44) 5-M.Prater 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 4 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (11:20) 6-J.Scott punts 51 yards to DET 26, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (6:41) 33-K.Johnson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (13:32) 5-M.Prater 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 18 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (4:45) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to GB 6, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-49-C.Moore.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 19 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 91%

    (:11) 2-M.Crosby 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 2 at the 30
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 77%

    (12:39) 2-M.Crosby 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 18 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:11) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to GB 34, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 10-D.Shepherd to GB 34 for no gain (30-D.Virgin). FUMBLES (30-D.Virgin), RECOVERED by DET-32-T.Wilson at GB 25. 32-T.Wilson to GB 25 for no gain (32-T.Carson).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 8 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 87%

    (9:04) 5-M.Prater 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 4 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (6:44) 6-J.Scott punts 51 yards to DET 33, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-37-J.Jackson.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 5 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 71%

    (3:31) 5-M.Prater 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (2:39) 6-J.Scott punts 53 yards to DET 18, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-29-K.Hollman.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 18 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (:30) 6-S.Martin punts 46 yards to GB 30, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 10-D.Shepherd.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 2 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 66%

    (12:22) 5-M.Prater 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 6 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (6:53) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to GB 18, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 10-D.Shepherd.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 4 at the 5 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (:02) 2-M.Crosby 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.