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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 30

Green Bay Packers 10 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(12:39) 2-M.Crosby 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.27 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
What Happened
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 40, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP