Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 71

Green Bay Packers 13 – Detroit Lions 19

(2:39) 6-J.Scott punts 53 yards to DET 18, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-29-K.Hollman.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.77 EP
58% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 71, worth -4.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model