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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 18 at the 57

Detroit Lions 13 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:45) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to GB 6, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-49-C.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.28 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model