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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 33

Detroit Lions 16 – Green Bay Packers 13

What Actually Happened

(3:31) 5-M.Prater 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.24 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.59 EP
What Happened
  • 71% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model