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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 4

Detroit Lions 10 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:32) 5-M.Prater 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.61 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 4, worth +0.16 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP