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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 35

Detroit Lions 19 – Green Bay Packers 13

What Actually Happened

(12:22) 5-M.Prater 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.69 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.70 EP
KICK +0.43 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP