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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 23

Detroit Lions 13 – Green Bay Packers 13

What Actually Happened

(9:04) 5-M.Prater 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.92 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model