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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 59

Detroit Lions 22 – Green Bay Packers 20

What Actually Happened

(6:53) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to GB 18, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 10-D.Shepherd.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.43 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 59, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model