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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 8

Detroit Lions 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:44) 5-M.Prater 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.38 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 8, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP