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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 19 at the 19

Green Bay Packers 7 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(:11) 2-M.Crosby 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
  • 20% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.89 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 19, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 29, worth -0.10 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model