Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 18 at the 82

Detroit Lions 13 – Green Bay Packers 13

What Actually Happened

(10:11) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to GB 34, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 10-D.Shepherd to GB 34 for no gain (30-D.Virgin). FUMBLES (30-D.Virgin), RECOVERED by DET-32-T.Wilson at GB 25. 32-T.Wilson to GB 25 for no gain (32-T.Carson).

The Three Options

GO -3.06 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.80 EP
72% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model