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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2019-09-29 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌧 Rain Spread -7.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

NE
62.9%
BUF
37.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to NE: Josh Allen (BUF) -0.095 vs Tom Brady (NE) +0.261 EPA/dropback
  • NE offense: +0.092 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.283 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.133 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NE 24
–
BUF 18
Projected margin: NE by 6 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

NE

Marshall Newhouse T Questionable Illness
Michael Bennett DE Questionable Shoulder
Rex Burkhead RB Questionable Foot
Nate Ebner S Questionable Groin
Julian Edelman WR Questionable Chest
Dont'a Hightower LB Questionable Shoulder
Matt LaCosse TE Questionable Ankle

BUF

Tyler Kroft TE Out Ankle
Corey Thompson LB Out Ankle
Maurice Alexander LB Questionable Knee
Jon Feliciano G Questionable Neck
Isaiah McKenzie WR Questionable Ankle
Robert Foster WR Questionable Groin
Taron Johnson CB Questionable Hamstring
Spencer Long C Questionable Ankle
Devin Singletary RB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 16
–
BUF 10

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:39 TD NE (7:39) 38-B.Bolden left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – BUF 0
  • Q1 06:30 TD NE (6:30) 9-C.Bojorquez punt is BLOCKED by 27-J.Jackson, Center-69-R.Ferguson, RECOVERED by NE-18-M.Slater at BUF 11. 18-M.Slater for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12 – BUF 0
  • Q2 02:00 FG BUF (2:00) 4-S.Hauschka 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. NE 13 – BUF 3
  • Q3 10:40 TD BUF (10:40) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 13 – BUF 9
  • Q3 01:00 FG NE (1:00) 3-S.Gostkowski 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 16 – BUF 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:25) 7-J.Bailey punts 46 yards to BUF 24, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 14 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (6:30) 9-C.Bojorquez punt is BLOCKED by 27-J.Jackson, Center-69-R.Ferguson, RECOVERED by NE-18-M.Slater at BUF 11. 18-M.Slater for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 16 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 44%

    (3:02) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to NE 6, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-S.Neal.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 4 at the 88
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (1:43) 7-J.Bailey punts 53 yards to BUF 35, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-A.Roberts to BUF 41 for 6 yards (34-R.Burkhead).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 14 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (14:48) 7-J.Bailey punts 46 yards to BUF 29, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-A.Roberts pushed ob at BUF 40 for 11 yards (51-J.Bentley).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 6 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 44%

    (12:35) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 37 yards to NE 5, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-S.Neal.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 13 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 78%

    (2:00) 4-S.Hauschka 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:39) 7-J.Bailey punts 43 yards to BUF 32, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 15 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 72%

    (:04) 4-S.Hauschka 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 99%

    (10:40) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 8 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (9:13) 7-J.Bailey punts 63 yards to BUF 12, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-A.Roberts to BUF 24 for 12 yards (31-J.Jones; 55-J.Simon). PENALTY on NE-18-M.Slater, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 24.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 4 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 49%

    (5:35) 7-J.Bailey punts 29 yards to BUF 11, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (1:00) 3-S.Gostkowski 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (10:50) (Shotgun) 5-M.Barkley pass short right intended for 11-Z.Jones INTERCEPTED by 23-P.Chung at NE -2. Touchback. Ball deflected off hands of Z.Jones at NE 3 before INT. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 5-M.Barkley pass incomplete short right to 11-Z.Jones. Ball deflected off hands of Z.Jones at NE 3 before bouncing to P.Chung 2 yds. into end zone.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 7 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (9:27) 7-J.Bailey punts 60 yards to BUF 34, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-A.Roberts pushed ob at BUF 47 for 13 yards (34-R.Burkhead).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 10 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 44%

    (8:44) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (7:46) 7-J.Bailey punts 49 yards to BUF 26, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-A.Roberts to BUF 27 for 1 yard (25-T.Brooks, 18-M.Slater).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 6 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:27) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to NE 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 7 at the 65 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:19) 7-J.Bailey punts 46 yards to BUF 19, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-A.Roberts to BUF 27 for 8 yards (25-T.Brooks). PENALTY on BUF-33-S.Neal, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 24.