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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 3

Buffalo Bills 10 – New England Patriots 16

What Actually Happened

(10:50) (Shotgun) 5-M.Barkley pass short right intended for 11-Z.Jones INTERCEPTED by 23-P.Chung at NE -2. Touchback. Ball deflected off hands of Z.Jones at NE 3 before INT. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 5-M.Barkley pass incomplete short right to 11-Z.Jones. Ball deflected off hands of Z.Jones at NE 3 before bouncing to P.Chung 2 yds. into end zone.

The Three Options

GO +2.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.75 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 3, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model