Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 94

New England Patriots 16 – Buffalo Bills 10

(9:27) 7-J.Bailey punts 60 yards to BUF 34, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-A.Roberts pushed ob at BUF 47 for 13 yards (34-R.Burkhead).

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.75 EP
56% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 94, worth -4.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model