Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 75

New England Patriots 13 – Buffalo Bills 3

(1:39) 7-J.Bailey punts 43 yards to BUF 32, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.60 EP
64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 75, worth -4.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model