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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 59

Buffalo Bills 10 – New England Patriots 16

What Actually Happened

(5:27) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to NE 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.78 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 59, worth -2.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 18, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model