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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 14 at the 75

New England Patriots 13 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(14:48) 7-J.Bailey punts 46 yards to BUF 29, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-A.Roberts pushed ob at BUF 40 for 11 yards (51-J.Bentley).

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.89 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 75, worth -4.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 32, worth -1.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model