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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Buffalo Bills
4th & 1 at the 1
Buffalo Bills 3 – New England Patriots 13
What Actually Happened
(10:40) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.94 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
60% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.08 EP
- 40% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 1, worth +0.65 EP
KICK
+2.10 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
- 1% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT
+0.07 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
