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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 88

New England Patriots 13 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(1:43) 7-J.Bailey punts 53 yards to BUF 35, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-A.Roberts to BUF 41 for 6 yards (34-R.Burkhead).

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.57 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 88, worth -5.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.68 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 46, worth -2.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP