Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 65

New England Patriots 16 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(3:19) 7-J.Bailey punts 46 yards to BUF 19, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-A.Roberts to BUF 27 for 8 yards (25-T.Brooks). PENALTY on BUF-33-S.Neal, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 24.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +0.76 EP
60% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 65, worth -3.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model