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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 13 at the 28

Buffalo Bills 0 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 4-S.Hauschka 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.94 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 28, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 38, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model