Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 75

New England Patriots 16 – Buffalo Bills 10

(7:46) 7-J.Bailey punts 49 yards to BUF 26, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-A.Roberts to BUF 27 for 1 yard (25-T.Brooks, 18-M.Slater).

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.44 EP
53% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 75, worth -3.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model