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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 42

Buffalo Bills 10 – New England Patriots 16

What Actually Happened

(8:44) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.28 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 42, worth -1.73 EP
KICK -0.43 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP