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Arizona Cardinals

HC Steve Wilks
@
MIN Home

Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Sunday 2018-10-14 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 10.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

ARI
32.0%
MIN
68.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: -0.197 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ARI defense: -0.102 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • MIN defense: +0.027 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Kirk Cousins (MIN): -0.001 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

ARI 19
–
MIN 25
Projected margin: MIN by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

ARI

Chase Edmonds RB Questionable Back
Markus Golden DE Questionable Knee
D.J. Humphries T Questionable Knee
Mike Iupati G Questionable Shoulder
Robert Nkemdiche DT Questionable Foot
Andre Smith T Questionable Hamstring

MIN

Tashawn Bower DE Out Ankle
Everson Griffen DE Out Not Injury Related
Riley Reiff T Out Foot
Andrew Sendejo S Out Groin
Dalvin Cook RB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 17
–
MIN 27

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:22 FG ARI (8:22) 4-P.Dawson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee. ARI 3 – MIN 0
  • Q1 05:41 TD MIN (5:41) 25-L.Murray up the middle for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 3 – MIN 6
  • Q1 02:08 FG MIN (2:08) 5-D.Bailey 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile. ARI 3 – MIN 10
  • Q2 04:24 TD ARI (4:24) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at MIN 29 for -7 yards (55-C.Jones). FUMBLES (55-C.Jones) [55-C.Jones], RECOVERED by ARI-36-B.Baker at MIN 36. 36-B.Baker for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 9 – MIN 10
  • Q2 00:12 FG MIN (:12) 5-D.Bailey 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile. ARI 10 – MIN 13
  • Q3 10:11 TD MIN (10:11) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 19-A.Thielen for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 10 – MIN 19
  • Q3 06:42 TD MIN (6:42) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins right end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 10 – MIN 26
  • Q4 07:01 TD ARI (7:01) 31-D.Johnson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 16 – MIN 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 3 at the 77
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (13:42) 2-A.Lee punts 51 yards to MIN 26, Center-46-A.Brewer. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 31 for 5 yards (92-D.Gardeck).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 2 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 51%

    (11:17) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 8-K.Cousins to ARI 43 for -1 yards (36-B.Baker).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 7 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (8:22) 4-P.Dawson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 12 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 92%

    (2:08) 5-D.Bailey 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (:19) 2-A.Lee punts 49 yards to MIN 30, Center-46-A.Brewer. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 31 for 1 yard (26-Bra.Williams).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 99%

    (12:07) 31-D.Johnson left guard to MIN 1 for no gain (29-X.Rhodes). MIN-91-S.Weatherly was injured during the play.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 3 at the 92
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (9:43) 6-M.Wile punts 50 yards to ARI 42, Center-47-K.McDermott. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 49 for 7 yards (50-E.Wilson).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 9 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 32%

    (8:09) 2-A.Lee punts 40 yards to MIN 10, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 12 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:54) 6-M.Wile punts 51 yards to ARI 5, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-42-B.Gedeon. PENALTY on ARI-21-P.Peterson, Offensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at ARI 5.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 2 at the 89
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (1:27) 2-A.Lee punts 55 yards to MIN 34, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 15 at the 98
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (7:58) 2-A.Lee punts 61 yards to MIN 37, Center-46-A.Brewer. 35-M.Sherels to ARI 43 for 20 yards (47-E.Turner).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 4 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 39%

    (1:35) 6-M.Wile punts 34 yards to ARI 13, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk. PENALTY on ARI-26-Bra.Williams, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at ARI 13.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 2 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 75%

    (12:11) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass incomplete deep left to 11-L.Fitzgerald (20-M.Alexander) [93-S.Richardson].

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 11 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (9:59) 6-M.Wile punts 47 yards to ARI 21, Center-47-K.McDermott. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 31 for 10 yards (41-A.Harris; 30-C.Ham).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 4 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (5:35) 6-M.Wile punts 43 yards to ARI 32, Center-47-K.McDermott. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 37 for 5 yards (27-J.Kearse). PENALTY on ARI-47-E.Turner, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 32.