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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 77

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(13:42) 2-A.Lee punts 51 yards to MIN 26, Center-46-A.Brewer. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 31 for 5 yards (92-D.Gardeck).

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.68 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 77, worth -4.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -2.31 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 34, worth -2.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP