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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 1

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(12:07) 31-D.Johnson left guard to MIN 1 for no gain (29-X.Rhodes). MIN-91-S.Weatherly was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +3.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.52 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 1, worth +0.39 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model