Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 12 at the 56

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 6-M.Wile punts 51 yards to ARI 5, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-42-B.Gedeon. PENALTY on ARI-21-P.Peterson, Offensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at ARI 5.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.96 EP
71% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 56, worth -2.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model