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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 32

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Minnesota Vikings 27

What Actually Happened

(12:11) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass incomplete deep left to 11-L.Fitzgerald (20-M.Alexander) [93-S.Richardson].

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.59 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 32, worth -1.70 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
  • 75% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 42, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model