Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 75

Minnesota Vikings 27 – Arizona Cardinals 17

What Actually Happened

(5:35) 6-M.Wile punts 43 yards to ARI 32, Center-47-K.McDermott. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 37 for 5 yards (27-J.Kearse). PENALTY on ARI-47-E.Turner, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 32.

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.15 EP
51% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 75, worth -4.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model