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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 89

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(1:27) 2-A.Lee punts 55 yards to MIN 34, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.12 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 89, worth -5.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.66 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 46, worth -2.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP