Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 68

Minnesota Vikings 27 – Arizona Cardinals 10

(9:59) 6-M.Wile punts 47 yards to ARI 21, Center-47-K.McDermott. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 31 for 10 yards (41-A.Harris; 30-C.Ham).

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.18 EP
68% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 68, worth -3.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model