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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 12 at the 19

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(2:08) 5-D.Bailey 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.66 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 19, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 29, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model