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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 42

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(11:17) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 8-K.Cousins to ARI 43 for -1 yards (36-B.Baker).

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.64 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 42, worth -1.85 EP
KICK +0.02 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model