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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 92

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(9:43) 6-M.Wile punts 50 yards to ARI 42, Center-47-K.McDermott. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 49 for 7 yards (50-E.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.49 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 92, worth -5.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.66 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 50, worth -2.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP