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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 14 at the 79

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(:19) 2-A.Lee punts 49 yards to MIN 30, Center-46-A.Brewer. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 31 for 1 yard (26-Bra.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -2.92 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 79, worth -4.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 36, worth -2.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model