4th & Data
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Cleveland Browns

HC Hue Jackson
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Oakland Raiders

HC Jon Gruden
Sunday 2018-09-30 · 16:05 Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, Oakland US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

CLE
51.6%
OAK
48.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.106 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • LV offense: -0.146 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Baker Mayfield (CLE): +0.386 EPA/dropback in prior starts (CLE starting Baker Mayfield in place of Tyrod Taylor)
  • CLE on 3 more days rest than LV

Predicted Final Score

CLE 25
–
OAK 24
Projected margin: CLE by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

CLE

James Burgess LB Out Knee
Seth DeValve TE Questionable Hamstring
Damarious Randall S Questionable Heel
Tyrod Taylor QB Questionable Back

OAK

Karl Joseph S Out Hamstring
P.J. Hall DT Questionable Ankle
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 42
–
OAK 45

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 38 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:11 TD LV (10:11) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left intended for 11-A.Callaway INTERCEPTED by 21-G.Conley at CLE 36. 21-G.Conley for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – OAK 6
  • Q1 02:03 FG CLE (2:03) 17-G.Joseph 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CLE 3 – OAK 7
  • Q2 12:46 TD CLE (12:46) 24-N.Chubb right guard for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 9 – OAK 7
  • Q2 09:08 TD CLE (9:08) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 88-D.Fells for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 15 – OAK 7
  • Q2 04:34 TD LV (4:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 89-A.Cooper for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 17 – OAK 13
  • Q3 09:26 FG CLE (9:26) 17-G.Joseph 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CLE 20 – OAK 14
  • Q3 07:31 TD CLE (7:31) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 80-J.Landry for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 26 – OAK 14
  • Q3 05:38 TD LV (5:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 87-J.Cook for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 28 – OAK 20
  • Q4 14:17 FG LV (14:17) 3-M.McCrane 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend. CLE 28 – OAK 24
  • Q4 12:51 TD LV (12:51) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 82-J.Nelson for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 28 – OAK 30
  • Q4 10:50 FG LV (10:50) 3-M.McCrane 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend. CLE 28 – OAK 34
  • Q4 08:11 TD CLE (8:11) 71-E.Watford reported in as eligible. 34-C.Hyde right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 34 – OAK 34
  • Q4 04:30 TD CLE (4:30) (Shotgun) 24-N.Chubb up the middle for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 41 – OAK 34
  • Q4 00:34 TD LV (:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 87-J.Cook for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 42 – OAK 40
  • Q5 01:50 FG LV (1:50) 3-M.McCrane 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend. CLE 42 – OAK 45

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (13:25) 5-J.Townsend punts 47 yards to CLE 19, Center-47-T.Sieg. 11-A.Callaway pushed ob at CLE 28 for 9 yards (55-M.Lee).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 8 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:32) 4-B.Colquitt punts 59 yards to LV 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 17-D.Harris to LV 23 for 12 yards (82-O.Charles, 24-N.Chubb).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 4 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (10:56) 5-J.Townsend punts 38 yards to CLE 33, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-85-D.Carrier. PENALTY on CLE-20-B.Boddy-Calhoun, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 33.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 6 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 53%

    (7:28) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles left end ran ob at LV 32 for 7 yards (29-L.Hall).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (2:03) 17-G.Joseph 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 2 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 77%

    (12:50) 3-M.McCrane 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (11:05) 5-J.Townsend punts 44 yards to CLE 29, Center-47-T.Sieg. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 30 for 1 yard (17-D.Harris).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 2 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (2:00) 4-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to LV 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 3 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 96%

    (9:26) 17-G.Joseph 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 9 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (5:58) 5-J.Townsend punts 49 yards to CLE 11, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 11 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (4:16) 4-B.Colquitt punts 40 yards to LV 42, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 2 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 25%

    (3:05) 5-J.Townsend punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:36) 4-B.Colquitt punts 59 yards to LV 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 17-D.Harris to LV 31 for 11 yards (26-D.Kindred).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 4 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 96%

    (14:17) 3-M.McCrane 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:28) 4-B.Colquitt punts 53 yards to LV 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 17-D.Harris to CLE 29 for 49 yards (24-N.Chubb; 88-D.Fells).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 7 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 82%

    (10:50) 3-M.McCrane 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 12 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:54) 5-J.Townsend punts 39 yards to CLE 22, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers. PENALTY on LV-17-D.Harris, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 22.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 8 at the 9 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (1:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short right to 89-A.Cooper.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 82 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (1:38) 4-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to LV 33, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 17-D.Harris ran ob at LV 47 for 14 yards (24-N.Chubb).