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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 60

Cleveland Browns 17 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 4-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to LV 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.06 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 60, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 19, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP