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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 39

Cleveland Browns 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(7:28) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles left end ran ob at LV 32 for 7 yards (29-L.Hall).

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.62 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 39, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.56 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 48, worth -3.04 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model