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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 50

Las Vegas Raiders 21 – Cleveland Browns 28

What Actually Happened

(3:05) 5-J.Townsend punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.91 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 50, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.48 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP