Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 79

Cleveland Browns 28 – Las Vegas Raiders 21

(1:36) 4-B.Colquitt punts 59 yards to LV 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 17-D.Harris to LV 31 for 11 yards (26-D.Kindred).

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.20 EP
64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 79, worth -4.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model